Tablet shipments are expected to decline in 2015 as the market loses momentum amid
saturation among consumers in developed regions, according to analysts. International
Data Corp. (IDC) forecasts that shipments of tablets and 2-in-1 devices will decline to 221.8 million this year, down 3.8% from 2014. Other market
research firms are similarly pessimistic about the tablet market in 2015. IHS Technology
predicts that the tablet market will decline in 2015 and remain flat in 2016 before returning
to growth in 2017. According to ABI Research, tablet shipments declined in the first quarter by 35% compared with the fourth quarter of 2014 and by 16% compared to the first quarter of 2014.
shipments have fallen in previous quarters, but that the first quarter drop stood out. “What’s notable about this is that it’s a steeper rate of decline than we have seen,” Alexander told
EE Times. Analysts see several reasons for the decline of tablet shipments. Chief among
them is saturation, with a large portion of interested consumers in developed countries
already owning a tablet. The number of consumers upgrading to a newer device is not
sufficient to keep unit shipments on the upswing, analysts say.”People with the
wherewithal to buy their first tablets have done so,” said Jeff Orr, a senior practice director
at ABI. Orr said tablet shipments may never again enjoy the growth rates they enjoyed
when the products first emerged, but noted that tablets are still a strong force in the
computing market. The rise of larger smartphones is also contributing to the decline of
tablet shipments, according to analysts.
Just as the emergence of tablets in the late 2000s cannibalized the sales of other products
categories like netbooks, the growing popularity of so-called phablets is cannibalizing tablet sales, Alexander said. “A certain segment of the
population wants an all-in-one solution,” Alexander said. Ryan Reith, program director for IDC’s worldwide mobile
device trackers, said the popularity of smaller-screen tablets is also a factor. “Users with larger-screen smartphones have tended to have less need for a tablet with a screen size
comparable to their smartphone,” Reith said. But analysts believe there are still
opportunities for growth in tablets, particularly in emerging markets and in the enterprise
segment. “People in emerging markets are starting to look at tablets and understand what
role they play,” said Orr. But, he added, the population in emerging markets with the means to buy tablets is not large enough to drive the type of growth that tablets enjoyed in
developed countries when they first burst onto the scene.
Alexander noted that while consumer market for tablets is becoming saturated, the market
for tablets in business is still largely untapped and ripe for opportunity. But, she added,
large-scale adoption of tablets in the enterprise market will require fundamental changes to the
way business is conducted. She said the collaboration announced last year by Apple and
IBM to develop a new class of mobile enterprise apps—as well as similar projects going on in the Android world—could result in new business practices that revolve around the tablet and could decrease
training requirements for using business applications while increasing accuracy and speed
of use and making the data contained in legacy enterprise systems much more accessible.
“The question with tablets in business is, ‘Can we fundamentally change the way we work?’" Alexander said. Alexander said IHS also expects tablets to get a boost from the release of Apple’s iOS 9 later this year. The new operating system will include capabilities that could
motivate people still using older iPads to refresh, she said. Alexander also said the tablet
forecast could get a boost from Apple’s newest iPad launch in the fourth quarter of this
year. The new version of iOS, coupled with the anticipation of a larger-screen iPad and other potential innovations, “has the potential to drive fresh momentum
into the tablet market,” Alexander said.
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